Data show Trump didn't 'build' a great economy. He inherited it
The average quarterly economic growth under Trump, 2.5 percent, was almost exactly what it was under Obama in the second term, 2.4 percent.
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s campaign speeches can careen into many topics, but his primary appeal continues to be that he built “the greatest economy that we've had in our history” before the COVID-19 pandemic and he can do it again. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows he has an edge with voters on that issue and the Trump economy is likely to be a big topic this week at the Republican convention.
But the real story ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ the Trump economy, and the president’s role in building it, is not so simple. If you compare key economic indicators from Barack Obama’s second term in office to the first three years ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ Trump’s time (that is, before the pandemic hit), the data show a continuation ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ trends, not a dramatic shift. It suggests Trump didn’t build something new; rather he inherited a pretty good situation.
Start with the broadest measure ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ economic health, gross domestic product. In 2016, Trump said he was unhappy that the country’s economic growth rate was under 3 percent a year. Trump said he thought the economy could
grow at better-than-4-percent annual rate.
But the numbers show that average quarterly economic growth under Trump, 2.5 percent, was almost exactly what it was under Obama in the second term, 2.4 percent.
Other than the overall similarity, two things jump out ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ those numbers. First, Trump didn’t get near his 4 percent figure. Second, the growth that began in Obama’s second term and essentially continued under Trump was enough to create an economy that even Trump believes was great. In other words, there might be something to be said for slow-steady growth over a prolonged period ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ time.
Job numbers for Obama and Trump show a similar story.
The president rightly takes credit for having low unemployment during his presidency. In December ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ 2019, the unemployment rate was a scant 3.5 percent, the lowest it had been in 50 years.
However, as good as that number was, when Trump took office the rate was already at 4.7 percent. That figure is quite low by historical standards (lower than all ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ the 1980s as well as most ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ the 1990s and 2000s). In December ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ 2017, it was the lowest the number had been since the Great Recession. In fact, Obama saw a much steeper drop in unemployment in his second term, a 3.3 drop in the rate, than Trump did in his first three years, a decline ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ 1.2 points.
That’s not to besmirch the remarkably low unemployment under Trump, but it’s hard to ignore that the unemployment track under Obama had been downward. Again, the numbers look like
the continuation ************SPAM/BANNEAR************ a trend, not something new.
And the job creation numbers show more evidence for that view.
On average, there were more jobs added monthly in Barack Obama’s second term than there were in Trump's first three years.
On average, the country created 215,000 new jobs a month in Obama’s second term. In Trump’s first three years, the figure was 182,000. They are both good numbers and if you look at
the jobs data plotted on a graph, the rise since 2011 actually looks pretty consistent.
But that’s the point. Since the recovery from the last recession the numbers look like a slow, steady build. There is no sudden change when Trump takes office in 2017. There was nothing dramatic in the post-2011 job figures until the pandemic hit this spring.
There is one big indicator that suggests a change under Trump, the rise in the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in particular took off when he won the presidency.
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